No other year in recent times saw such wild mood swings in the Indian economy than 2008, which started on a strong note but ended on a weak
Cash
2008 turned financial heroes to zeroes
2008: Year of financial crisis
Countries in recession
wicket in the wake of a general global slowdown and severe recession in some of the richest countries like the US and Japan. From economic expansion to performance of equity markets, and from export growth to industrial production, all indicators had the same story to tell: The year had started with a strong economic performance, but the momentum was lost as the months passed, as India faced the ripple effects of the gloom in the global economy
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The indicator that captured the trend best was the 30-share sensitive index (Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), often seen as a barometer not only for investor mood but also the overall performance of the Indian economy and its corporate sector.
On Jan 10 this year, the Sensex was ruling at an all-time intra-day high of 21,206.77 points. But as the year is drawing to a close, it is languishing at around the 9,000-point mark - a fall of over 50 percent in the year. Last year, the index had gained nearly 50 percent.
The Sensex apart, exports fell in October for the first time in seven years. Indirect tax mop up was down eight percent in October. Industrial production, which was among the main drivers of the economy, fell 0.4 percent. The rupee fell below 50 to a dollar in November to an all-time low. And, as per the government's own admission, some 65,000 jobs were lost between August and October.
The high cost of crude oil, which jumped from under $40 per barrel a year ago to nearly $150 per barrel in August, added to the country's woes in terms of higher import bill and accentuated the losses of state-run fuel retailers, which had to bear the burden of having to sell hydrocarbon products below cost.
As a result, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, which at the beginning of the year said the Indian economy would continue to grow at over nine percent this fiscal, had to tone down its target sharply, hoping to achieve an overall increase of 7-7.5 percent in gross domestic product (GDP).
"Two key sectors, agriculture and industry, were unable to maintain the pace due to the global economic slowdown. This will have a serious effect on our overall growth," said Dalip Kumar, head of projects at the National Council of Applied Economics Research, an economic think-tank.
The only notable saving grace was on the price front, where the annual rate of inflation fell from a 16-year high of 12.63 percent for the week ended Aug 9 to 6.84 percent for the week ended Dec 6 - but not without taking a toll on industrial growth on account of the tight monetary policy of the central bank
during the months before.
"Inflation is not a concern any more. If the Indian government does not think in terms of long- term measures to contain the slowdown, the medium-term growth projection of 8-9 percent will be difficult to achieve," said Biswa N. Bhattacharyay, Tokyo-based special adviser with the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
As India Inc. cried hoarse, saying the credit squeeze due to the policies of the central bank was affecting its day-to-day business, policymakers appeared to be in a denial mode initially, with the prime minister maintaining that India remained largely insulated from the goings-on in the world economy.
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